The Startup Success Formula Most People Ignore


Hi Reader, it’s Daria here.

When I first started advising early-stage founders and business leaders, I kept hearing the same assumptions repeated: that success hinged on having a charismatic founder, a standout personal brand, or an impressive resume.

But over time—working with a range of organizations from fast-growing tech startups to Fortune 500 companies—I noticed a different pattern. The real driver of success wasn’t personality. It was structure. It was how teams functioned, how decisions were made, and how clearly everyone understood their roles.

And recently, a large-scale study from Harvard Business School confirmed much of what I’ve seen over the past 15+ years.

The study looked at 470 early-stage startups. What they found pushed back on some of the most common beliefs about what makes a company thrive.

It’s Less About Who, and More About How

Success didn’t come from the founder’s background, where they went to school, or whether they were a repeat entrepreneur. It came from how the leadership team operated.

The startups that saw strong valuation growth all had something in common: they built well-run organizations with clear systems and shared understanding. The five strongest predictors of success were:

  1. Clarity around the competitive landscape — Teams that understood who they were up against made more informed choices.
  2. Deep insight into customer needs — They didn’t guess; they listened and responded to real pain points.
  3. Well-defined leadership roles — When it was clear who owned what, teams executed faster and avoided internal conflict.
  4. A clear path to profitability — Founders who could confidently explain how the business would make money had far better outcomes.
  5. Early HR systems — Even at the earliest stages, teams with structured hiring, onboarding, and role clarity tended to outperform.

These may sound basic, but in practice, they’re often overlooked—especially in the early days when everyone’s wearing multiple hats.

Other Patterns That Stood Out

Startups that exceeded their fundraising targets were more likely to grow. So were teams that hired based on mindset and culture fit, rather than only technical skill. And those that maintained steady, low-conflict relationships with investors saw better outcomes over time.

On the other side, teams that lacked clarity in leadership, struggled to define how they’d turn a profit, or had ongoing internal friction were much more likely to underperform.

These weren’t just small correlations. For example, when leadership roles were unclear, the risk of a low valuation jumped to 49%. When those roles were clearly defined, that risk dropped to just 1%.

What Didn’t Matter as Much as Expected

Interestingly, the study found that things like educational background, founder personality, years of experience, or motivation for starting the company had little or no effect on outcomes. These may play a role in shaping how someone approaches the work—but they weren’t reliable indicators of success on their own.

What to Take Away

Success isn’t about having the most visionary founder or the flashiest background. It’s about how you build the organization around your idea.

That means getting clear on roles, listening closely to your customers, setting up basic systems early, and making sure the team is aligned on how the business will actually work.

This study validated what I’ve learned from years of watching companies grow (and stall): execution matters more than charisma, and clarity beats complexity almost every time.


P.S. I have a book coming out this September about building self-sufficient teams that drive real organizational results. If you’re interested, follow me on LinkedIn and keep reading this newsletter. I’ll be sharing more insights as we get closer to launch.

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